Kyiv’s Russian incursion is on a knife edge

The remarkable operation has changed the calculus, but Britain and the West are risking it by their dithering

Each dawn in Russia sees a repeat of the last: in key cities, the hum of drones fills the air, distant oil depots erupt into flames and military convoys explode. Meanwhile, Putin deflects blame on television, visiting sites far removed from the war to distract from the embarrassment. The Russian army has even turned its deadly weapons on itself, bombing its own soil in an attempt to repel the Ukrainian forces who crossed the border into Kursk a fortnight ago.
All this drums home the degree to which the remarkable Kyiv incursion has rattled Moscow. Incredibly, the Kremlin is already preparing the public for this incursion to last “months”, with President Putin giving orders to liberate the Kursk region by as late as October 1. Those who predicted in these pages that the Ukrainians intended to stay in the region longer than many assumed would appear to have been proven correct.
And yet, it is important to recognise that the success of the operation militarily is still very much in the balance. While there is evidence that some Russian troops are being diverted from Ukraine to counter the incursion, Moscow’s assault in the Donbas continues unabated; the town of New York – one might say symbolically, given limp American support for Kyiv earlier this year – has fallen. This is a worrying sign, as a strategic diversion is a key goal for Ukraine; another is the encirclement of Russian positions near Kharkiv, which President Zelensky referred to as a “buffer zone” to prevent relentless attacks on the city.
Pressure by Russia in eastern Ukraine, in short, continues to grow, so time is of the essence for Kyiv to make more progress in Kursk, which will stall Moscow in Ukraine itself.
Politically, much is riding on the success of this operation for Zelensky. It’s a high-risk, high-reward gamble. He may seek to use captured Russian conscripts as leverage to secure the release of Ukrainian prisoners of war. More crucially, holding Kursk could play a significant role in the approaching negotiations with Russia. Zelensky has already indicated that a second peace summit, scheduled for the end of this year, will include the Russian side. Early indications of this may emerge during the visit to Kyiv by India’s prime minister Narendra Modi today, who previously visited Moscow this summer and has positioned himself as a potential mediator in the conflict.
All this underlines the urgency for the West to do more. Throughout 2024, with limited Western resources and declining morale at home, Ukraine has relied on ingenuity to stay in the fight. This has led to the deployment of long-range, domestically produced drones and the destruction of Russian supply lines, airfields, and oil depots deep within Russia. Some Ukrainian sources believe this represents the best chance to end the war of attrition – a situation created by Russian recklessness and Western hesitation – and to bring Russia to the negotiating table on Ukraine’s terms.
Holding Kursk, and potentially even Bryansk or Belgorod in the near future, would serve as crucial bargaining chips were that to happen. Again, these would be gains made despite, rather than because of, Western support. The fact that the incursion has not yet prompted countries like Britain to authorise further weapon transfers, such as Storm Shadow missiles, is perplexing and frustrating given Britain’s role in setting the tone for other Nato powers. For the Kursk operation has fatally undermined the argument that Russia would use nuclear weapons if certain lines are crossed. But still the West hesitates.
Meanwhile, within Russia, the narrative is shifting, even within its propaganda apparatus, as doubts grow about the regime’s strength. Reports of the Russian army’s tactics of indiscriminate, chaotic bombings in Kursk’s most populated areas are causing widespread unrest. It wouldn’t be surprising if this Ukrainian incursion triggers the emergence of another figure like Wagner’s Prigozhin on the stage of Russian military-political theatre at some point.
So the next logical step is obvious: for the West to give more weapons and permissions to Ukraine. If the Kursk operation fails in its objectives, and Moscow continues making progress in Ukraine, their surprise will have achieved little. So much depends on the coming days. Britain and the West must act before the opportunity is lost.
Aliona Hlivco is managing director of the Henry Jackson Society, a trans-Atlantic foreign policy and national security think tank